When Rivals Study Democracies’ Divisions: How Polarised Societies Face Strategic Challenges
From Ukraine to Iran: Strategic Competition in an Era Where Domestic Discord Becomes a Geopolitical Factor
March 16th, 2026Berlin Global’s Sunday Article - In the twenty-first century, great power competition increasingly operates not only on battlefields and in diplomatic chambers but also within democratic societies themselves. Countries such as Russia, China and Iran that act in collaboration have developed strategies that leverage political polarisation, fragmented media environments and public distrust in institutions. These efforts are deliberate attempts to influence public opinion, shape debates and affect strategic outcomes in ways that favour their interests.
At the heart of this dynamic is a fundamental asymmetry. Democracies’ openness, pluralism, and respect for free expression create spaces for broad public debate and diverse perspectives. In contrast, authoritarian systems can coordinate messaging more tightly, facing fewer internal constraints. These differences are not abstract; they are evident across multiple arenas, shaping domestic debates, international policy, and even migration management.
Historical precedents underscore the importance of unity in democratic governance. Heinrich von Treitschke observed in Politik (1892): “A parliament divided against itself can paralyse the will of the state; indecision invites both internal decay and foreign intervention.” Max Weber similarly warned in Politik als Beruf (1919): “Politics demands the capacity to act in the long term; a democracy divided by short-term interests risks surrendering its power and independence.” Otto von Bismarck, reflecting on German governance in Letters and Speeches (1862–1890), noted: “The weakness of governments in the face of constant quarrels and partisan strife emboldens external challengers and imperils the state.” These observations remain relevant today, illustrating how internal divisions can complicate coherent decision-making.
Information Operations and Strategic Polarisation
States and other actors use information campaigns to shape debates within democracies. These efforts often aim to influence both decision makers and the public, sometimes amplifying existing social or political divisions. Since 2022, the conflict in Ukraine has coincided with information campaigns on multiple media platforms. These campaigns, originating from different countries, have sought to shape narratives about foreign policy, military support, and democratic institutions. Misleading or selectively framed information can create confusion, mistrust, and fatigue among audiences long before policy outcomes are decided.
Efforts sometimes involve mimicking familiar news sources or producing content aligned with specific audiences’ values and concerns. The aim is not only to inform but also to resonate with local debates and social dynamics, amplifying existing differences and testing public perceptions. Generative platforms and algorithmic systems have increased the scale and reach of such messaging. Automated tools can distribute content targeted to demographic groups, often emphasising emotional narratives. While these technological capabilities can be misused, they also highlight the need for democracies to strengthen media literacy, fact-checking, and transparent communication.
Why Democracies Are More Exposed
Features that define democracy plurality of media, electoral competition, and open debate also create opportunities for exploitation. Fragmented media environments can make consensus harder, and polarized electorates may delay decision-making on issues that require national agreement. Open societies are naturally constrained by accountability, oversight, and legal frameworks, which can slow responses to influence operations.
By contrast, centralized systems can implement consistent messaging and strategy without independent scrutiny. Democracies, while resilient in many ways, must balance transparency and freedom with measures that strengthen institutional coherence and societal trust.
Migration, a vital and sensitive policy area, illustrates this tension. Open migration policies, once well planned are important for humanitarian and economic reasons, yet public anxieties can be influenced by polarised debate once the borders are open. Democracies face the challenge of maintaining openness while supporting informed, balanced public discussion.
Hybrid Tactics and Grey Zone Challenges
Contemporary competition extends beyond information campaigns. Cyberattacks, economic pressures, proxy support, and selective intervention in political processes are among tactics that test democratic resilience. Operating below the threshold of conventional conflict, these approaches can erode trust, strain institutions, and complicate decision-making. Democracies must respond through preparation, cross-party coordination and international cooperation.
Strengthening Resilience
Recognising the risks of polarisation is only the first step. Democracies can strengthen their resilience while upholding fundamental freedoms by developing long-term strategies that are insulated from short-term political pressures. One approach is to establish independent cross-party councils or permanent strategy offices that provide continuous guidance on issues such as foreign policy, national security, and migration planning. These bodies can ensure that decisions are informed by expertise and historical perspective, enabling governments to respond consistently across electoral cycles.
Equally important is fostering connections between citizens across ideological divides. Civic education programmes, community forums, and national service initiatives can help build a sense of shared purpose and reinforce the social cohesion necessary for effective governance. By engaging citizens in dialogue and collaboration, democracies make it more difficult for external actors to exploit societal divisions and ensure that public debates remain constructive rather than polarised.
Media literacy, transparency, and rapid fact-checking are critical tools in countering misleading or manipulative narratives. Encouraging the public to evaluate information critically and ensuring that credible sources are widely accessible help maintain trust in institutions and reduce the impact of false or exaggerated claims. At the same time, international collaboration on intelligence sharing, coordinated messaging, and crisis response enhances a democracy’s capacity to respond effectively to complex challenges and ensures that policy decisions are informed by a comprehensive understanding of global developments.
Legislators play a central role in safeguarding strategic continuity. By reaching agreement on core issues such as defence commitments, intelligence-sharing, critical infrastructure, and international obligations, political parties can maintain coherence without limiting debate in other areas. Scenario-based exercises and partnerships with civil society organisations further strengthen preparedness, helping lawmakers anticipate potential challenges and respond collaboratively. These measures do not restrict democratic freedoms; rather, they create structures that allow open debate to flourish while ensuring that essential decisions are made with clarity, consistency, and foresight.
Cultural Diplomacy: Strengthening from Within
Cultural diplomacy, including education, arts, media, and international exchanges, reinforces democratic values and societal cohesion. It projects shared principles abroad while supporting internal resilience. Dialogue, patience, compromise, and mutual respect are central to this approach, allowing democracies to manage differences constructively rather than letting disputes weaken governance.
Historical examples show the power of compromise:
- The French Third Republic achieved reforms through negotiation across factions.
- The Treaty of Locarno (1925) illustrates cross-party collaboration to stabilise borders and enhance security.
- The United States’ Civil Rights Act (1964) required extensive negotiation and compromise to enact landmark social change.
These cases highlight how dialogue, compromise, and shared responsibility strengthen institutions and society alike.
Cohesion as Strategic Strength
Internal divisions in democracies are not only domestic concerns; they influence international effectiveness. By agreeing on core red-line issues, fostering dialogue, managing migration thoughtfully, and leveraging cultural diplomacy, democracies can enhance resilience while maintaining openness.
Cohesive decision-making is itself a form of national defence. As Alexis de Tocqueville observed, “In democratic societies the multiplicity of opinions and the openness of debate, while a strength, can delay decision and weaken collective action in times of peril.” Legislators who prioritise reason, dialogue, and compromise strengthen not only their institutions but the long-term resilience of democracy itself.
The survival of democracy depends not only on military capabilities but also on the wisdom and collaboration of those governing within its chambers.
